Headline Inflation Drops To 12.48% In April 2018; 0.86% Lower Than March 2018

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures inflation increased by 12.48 percent (year-on-year) in April 2018, this is 0.86 percent points less than the rate recorded in March 2018 (13.34) percent and represents the fifteenth consecutive disinflation since January 2017.

Increases were recorded in all COICOP divisions that yield the Headline Index.

On a month-on-month basis, the Headline index increased by 0.83 percent in April 2018, down by 0.01 percent points from the rate recorded in March 2018.

The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve-month period ending April 2018 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve-month period was 15.20 percent, showing 0.40 percent.

The Urban inflation rate eased by 12.89 percent (year-on-year) in April 2018 from 13.75 percent recorded in March, while the Rural inflation rate also eased by 12.13 percent in April 2018 from 12.99 percent in March.

On month-on-month basis, the urban index rose by 0.85 percent in April 2018, down by 0.01 from 0.86 percent recorded in March, while the rural index also rose by 0.82 percent in April 2018, recording no change from the figure obtained in March (0.82) percent.

The corresponding twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index is 15.47 percent in April 2018. This is less than 15.87 percent reported in March, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in April 2018 is 14.95 percent compared to 15.34 percent recorded in March.

Food Index

The Composite Food Index rose by 14.80 percent in April 2018. The rise in the index was caused by increases in prices of Potatoes, yam and other tubers, Fish, Bread and cereals, Oil and fats, Vegetables and Meat.

On a month-on-month basis, the Food sub-index increased by 0.91 percent in April 2018, up by 0.01 percent points from 0.90 percent recorded in March.

The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending April 2018 over the previous twelve-month average was 18.89 percent, 0.4 percent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in March (19.29) percent.

The rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of Potatoes, Potatoes, Yam and Other Tubers, Fish, Bread and cereals, Oil and fats, Vegetables, Coffee, tea and cocoa, Meat, Milk, cheese and eggs.

All Items Less Farm Produce

The ‘’All Items less Farm Produce’’ or Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce is 10.9 percent in April 2018, down by 0.3 percent points from the rate recorded in March (11.2) percent.

On a month-on-month basis, the Core sub-index increased by 0.87 percent in April 2018, this was up by 0.03 percent when compared with 0.84 percent recorded in March.

The average 12-month annual rate of change of the index was 12.02 percent for the twelve-month period ending April 2018; this is 0.31 percent points lower than 12.33 percent recorded in March.

The highest increases were recorded in prices of Fuel and lubricants for personal transport equipment, Vehicle spare parts, Garments and Clothing materials and other articles of clothing and clothing accessories, Hairdressing salons and personal grooming establishment, Paramedical services and Pharmaceutical products

State Profiles

In analyzing price movements under this section, note that the CPI is weighted by consumption expenditure patterns which differ across States. Accordingly, the weight assigned to a particular food or non-food item may differ from State to State making inter State comparisons of consumption basket inadvisable and potentially misleading

All Items Inflation

In April 2018, all items inflation on a year on year basis was highest in Kebbi (15.94%), Rivers (15.01%) and Yobe (14.93%), while Kwara (9.77%), Delta (10.46%) and Benue (11.19%) recorded the slowest rise in headline Year on Year inflation.

On a month on month basis however, April 2018 all items inflation was highest in Kebbi (1.73%), Rivers (1.72%) and Lagos (1.60%), while Bauchi (0.01%) recorded slowest rise and Kaduna and Kano recorded price deflation on a month on month all item basis in April 2018.

Food Inflation

In April 2018, food inflation on a year on year basis was highest in Kebbi (17.92%), Bayelsa (17.85%) and Nasarawa (17.71%), while Benue (10.95%), Kogi (12.27%) and Gombe (12.46%) recorded the slowest rise in food inflation.

On a month on month basis however, April 2018 food inflation was highest in Lagos (2.49%), Ekiti and Kebbi (2.0%) and Rivers (1.98%), while Benue, Borno, Kaduna, Kano and Nasarawa all recorded food price deflation or negative inflation (general decrease in the general price level of goods and services or a negative inflation rate) in April 2018.

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